China's Foreign Policy: Opportunities and Challenges

Cheng YU

Perspectives, Vol. 2, No. 4

As the 21st century unfolds, the world is witnessing a profound restructuring in international relations. Globalization and multipolarization are the two most dominant trends of our time, under the sweeping forces of which countries are revamping their diplomatic strategies. China, in particular, is facing both enormous opportunities and unprecedented challenges. How can China's foreign policy help the country navigate safely through the turbulent waters of great transformation, competition and development? This essay tries to answer this question by first identifying specific opportunities and challenges, and then suggesting three focuses, for China's foreign policy.

I. Globalization and Multipolarization: Definitions

Before delving into detailed analysis, I would first define globalization and multi-polarization from the perspective of international relations, as these two concepts are the key to understanding my arguments in this essay.

First, what is globalization? The intensifying process of economic integration and political interdependence is the basic feature of globalization, which is tearing down old barriers and building new networks among nations, peoples and cultures. The process of globalization has been fueled by an explosion of high-tech developments that enable information, ideas, people, money, products and services to move within and across national borders at increasingly higher speeds and in ever larger volumes. Second, multipolarization is the contemporary phenomenon that various regional arrangements take shape and interact with one another. The days are gone when a couple of mighty powers decided the destiny of the rest of the world. Today even the United States as the world's only superpower often cannot have its own way in international affairs, and it has to network and collaborate with other players in the international arena in order to get things done.

China, which has one fifth of the world's population and the seventh largest economy, apparently aspires to become one important pillar in the emerging, multipolar world order. The new world order, on the other hand, also needs active participation and positive initiatives from China, which has rising economic, political and military might. China's internal process of modernization and the external process of globalization and multipolarization together create unique opportunities for Chinese foreign policy in the 21st century.

II. Opportunities

It is true that a number of recent events, including the Asian financial crisis, the WTO fiasco in Seattle, and various regional conflicts and transnational crimes, have demonstrated that globalization and multipolarization are two-edged swords whose adverse effects, if unbridled, would inflict serious damage to peace and development. It is also true that some nations are not hailing the new trend of globalization and multipolarization. It is, however, equally true that China is one of the major beneficiaries of a more connected and more balanced world, which will continue to help bring about more positive changes in the country. With the help of globalization, China has made and will continue to make huge progress in integrating into the international community, and it has significantly elevated its overall national strength. Together with China's internal process of reform and modernization, globalization and multipolarization will eventually position China as one of the major world powers.

Specifically, globalization and multipolarization have been providing, among other things, three major opportunities for China.

A. Lasting global peace

Both globalization and multipolarization demand further integration and cooperation, joint governance of world affairs and democratization of international relations. As such, while regional conflicts cannot be ruled out, a new world war is also inconceivable. This conclusion is supported by the following two observations. First, as globalization makes nations increasingly interdependent, the costs of large-scale military conflicts will be too high for any country to bear. As such, another world war is highly unlikely. Second, in a multipolar world, hegemonic actions of a small number of countries will meet strong resistance from the international community. Religious, territorial and ethnic conflicts may continue to shake the world from time to time, but they are not likely to ignite a worldwide conflagration as long as the basic multipolar structure of the world remains sound and healthy. With peace and development being the main theme of the contemporary world, China will continue to enjoy a relatively long period of peaceful international environment, which is important for China to attain the goals of its reforms.

B. New opportunities for economic development and cooperation

Globalization and multipolarization set the stage for dynamic innovations in science and technology, rapid movement of goods, capital and information, expansion and integration of markets, and liberalization of international trade. These developments have created enormous opportunities for countries like China, which is trying to eradicate backwardness and poverty and achieve modernity and abundance. As globalization deepens and the forces of the New Economy are brought into full play, more opportunities of economic development and cooperation are waving at China. The strategies of opening up China's West and the country's imminent entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) have signified the willingness of China's leadership to deepen the country's integration into the international community. The resulting opportunities of economic development will help China become a constructive and effective member of the international community.

C. A more pragmatic Western world

Globalization and multipolarization are also changing the China strategies of the Western world. The former U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, for example, repeatedly hailed the effectiveness of the Internet in spreading freedom and democracy, and she called upon the U.S. government to make the best use of the Internet. The United States, having sought to contain China for many years, seem to have realized that the strategy of containment may fuel Chinese people's nationalism and backfire in the end. A weak and isolated China may pose more threats to the world than a stronger and more international one. As such, the United States and other Western countries, while not completely giving up their containment efforts, are now taking advantage of the new possibilities created by globalization to engage and integrate China through exchanges and collaborations. The granting of the Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) by the United States and China's imminent accession to the WTO are some examples of this new, more pragmatic approach. China should fully utilize this opportunity to improve its relations with Western countries and enhance its diplomatic capabilities, which should in turn help the country achieve its goal of modernization.

III. Challenges: The Imbalance of International Forces

Despite the significant improvement of its security environment in the post-Cold War era, China is still facing serious challenges in the new century. The relatively weak voice of China in many international affairs, the unsettling relationships with its neighbors, and the Taiwan issue, to name just a few, are evidence of these challenges. The following analysis intends to show that all these challenges are more or less attributable to the imbalances of international forces.

A. The imbalance between the US and other powers

It must be stressed that multipolarization, being a dynamic process and a longtime pursuit, is still not a reality yet. The United States, with its economy steadily growing and its military force continuously being strengthened over the past decade, is currently the sole superpower in the world. Compared to the giant US, the major European powers have paled, Russia is struggling for a recovery, and Japan is adapting itself to the New Economy. The existing gap between the U.S. and other world powers will probably remain for many years to come. The U.S. thus will be the single most important player in the international arena.

B. The imbalance between developed countries and developing countries

Developed countries have gained unrivaled technological and economic edges over developing countries. They are not only controlling the world's economic resources and production, but are also shaping the rule-setting process of all international games. In contrast, a great many developing countries are increasingly sidelined in the international economic system, and quite a few of them, being desperately poor, are again plunging into a colonized state. Furthermore, the latest statistics from the World Bank as well as other international institutions indicate clearly that such poverty and inequality are becoming worse with each passing year.

C. The imbalance between conflicting ideologies and cultures

As many scholars have pointed out, globalization, while spreading technologies and capital, is also helping advance Western-style, and in particular, the American-style, ideologies and cultures. As long as China keeps its socialist ideology, it will inevitably meet pressures from the U.S. and other western countries. The many conflicts in diplomacy that we have already seen are rooted in ideological differences, which will keep finding their way in the forms of various issues in the future. How to work with countries with different ideologies while keeping our own values and culture poses an especially challenging task for China and its diplomats. At the same time, if dealt with wisdom and care, the challenge can prove rewarding. After all, cooperation and development should dominate China's agenda and putting differences in perspectives will help avoid unnecessary misunderstandings and miscommunications.

IV. Focuses of China's Foreign Policy

It is obvious from the analysis above that China, although rising, currently is still among the relatively vulnerable group of countries. This weak position has determined that over a long period of time, China will continue to be challenged by other stronger forces in many aspects, which may even threaten China's security interests and impede its progress. From the perspective of foreign policy, what strategies should China adopt in order to maintain the momentum of its economic development and achieve the goal of multipolarization, while at the same time keeping its own values and culture? As China's power and influence grow, its national interests and diplomatic activities are expanding as well. Given the country's limited resources, China should sort out priorities and stay focused to meet the challenges of international relations.

A. The Sino-U.S. relationship

With respect to relations with the major powers, the focus should be placed on Sino-U.S. relationship. The United States, taking the lead among the developed countries and playing a dominant role in international affairs, is considered as both a strategic rival and a cooperative partner for China. It constitutes a major impeding or facilitating factor for China's development. Therefore, its importance in China's diplomatic strategy is unique. A general review of the experience and lessons of Sino-US diplomacy in the past over 20 years, as well as the successes and failures of other countries in dealing with the United States suggests that a combination of principles and flexibility may be the best approach to interact with the U.S. Specifically, in terms of the Sino-US relation, China, on the one hand, should never budge on matters of principles, and should avoid the blunders of the former Soviet Union president Gorbachev. On the other hand, Chinese leaders, when managing possible future crises, should also demonstrate enough wisdom and creativity to avoid direct showdowns with the U.S. Chinese leaders should not follow Saddam Hussein or Slobodan Milosevic, who went into head-to-head confrontations with the U.S., ignoring the huge gap in strength and resources between them and the U.S., and eventually incurred heavy losses and high costs upon their own countries and peoples.

Now with the Bush administration taking office, the Sino-US relation will inevitably experience a transition period. A careful size-up of the situation and a policy review are expected from both sides. However, I believe that the bedrock of the bilateral relations such as the "Three Communiqués" and the "One China" principle should not be changed. These policies have been consistently followed for years by Republican and Democratic administrations alike. There is no reason to alter the course. I am glad to see some good omens indicating that Bush's stand towards China is softening in comparison with his campaign rhetoric about China. It is reported that his statement supporting the "Taiwan Security Enhancement Act" was quietly removed from his personal web-site. The new Secretary of State Colin Powell in his opening testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee said that the US did not see China as an "inevitable foe" and would stick to the "One China" policy. During his meeting with China's departing Ambassador Li Zhaoxing, Secretary Powell reassured Li that the Bush administration would conduct the US-China relations in accordance with the "Three Communiqués." These are encouraging signs that may pave the way to a smooth transition for the Sino-US relation. I totally agree with the viewpoint of Professor David Shambaugh, a respected China expert, who wrote in the latest issue of "Foreign Affairs" magazine: "the dichotomy between strategic cooperation and competition is a false one ---- the US-China relationship is a mixture of both. Despite the discordant issues over which their mutual interests and perspectives diverge and diplomatic tensions sometimes run high, numerous areas exist where the two governments have complementary or convergent interests and can enjoy positive ties." I hope that his voice will be heard by President Bush's China policy team and a sound and positive relationship between the two giants will continue to develop in the new century.

B. The China periphery

When it comes to the regional diplomatic agenda, priority should be given to China's periphery because of its strategic importance to China's national interests.

China's periphery is notably dotted with military powers (e.g. Russia and India), economic giants (e.g. Japan and South Korea), and emerging markets (e.g. the ASEAN countries). In addition, there is a powerful U.S. military presence of one hundred thousand troops plus enhanced military alliances with Japan, South Korea and other Asian states. In addition, regional tensions and conflicts (Afghanistan, Kashmir, and the Korean Peninsula) and various pro-independence forces (Taiwan, Tibet and East Turkistan) always loom to threaten China's security. Since China's economy as well as its security has already been woven into the regional fabric, any turbulence in the region will have a great impact on China. As such, China, as the biggest country in East Asia, has a lot at stake in maintaining stability and prosperity in the region.

Over the past several years China has significantly improved and strengthened its relationships with many of its neighbors, as well as its image as a responsible regional player. The important stabilizing role China played when southeast Asia plunged into a financial crisis in the late 90's has made many Asian states look at China with a new perspective, seek closer ties with it, and anticipate from it greater contributions to achieving regional stability. This provides unprecedented opportunities for China to further promote both bilateral and multilateral relations with all the states in the region.

At present, the most effective way for China to achieve its regional diplomatic agenda is to strengthen and expand regional cooperation within the framework of multilateral institutions, such as the "10+3" (ASEAN plus China, Japan and South Korea) and the Shanghai Forum (China, Russia and Central Asian countries). Through these efforts, China could boost its strategic collaboration with Russia, broaden the common area of strategic interests with Japan and South Korea, improve good relationships and mutual confidence with ASEAN countries, and accelerate the normalization process with India. This way, China will gradually achieve the goal to construct a stable and prosperous regional environment through joint confidence-building and cooperation-promoting efforts.

C. The Taiwan issue

Among many pressing issues concerning China's national interests, the Taiwan issue should always be put at the top of China's diplomatic policy agenda. For China, there are two basic principles underlying any policy towards Taiwan: one is the firm stand against any form of separatism on the island, and the other is the utmost effort to seek a peaceful solution and a win-win outcome. Despite the continuing demand for independence in some sectors of Taiwan, there are more encouraging signs that favor reunification. For example, most countries in this world support the "One China" principle and various political parties in Taiwan have also stood up against Taiwan's unilateral declaration of independence. Furthermore, Taiwanese people, especially those in the business community, are urging for the immediate resumption of direct "Three Links" across The Strait.

China should take advantage of the above favorable developments in resolving the Taiwan issue, but meanwhile should also be extremely alert in dealing with the situation. In his New Year's address, Chen Shui-bian again played the word game, saying, "according to ROC (The Republic of China) Constitution, One China should not be an issue." Still, Chen had to relinquish Lee Teng-hui's policy of "patience over haste" in cross-strait economic and trade relations and adopt a new perspective of "positive openness with effective management." As a sign of this policy adjustment, the Taiwan authority unilaterally resumed the "three small links" earlier this year. All these moves indicate that Chen is under great pressure from the Taiwanese people to tie Taiwan more closely to the mainland.

The bottom line, I think, is that the integration of the economies on two sides of the Strait is inevitable. The latest polls in Taiwan have shown repeatedly that the political chaos and economic recession on the island are forcing more and more Taiwanese to "go west" to the mainland to look for wealth and security. The mainland has become the third most popular destination after the U.S. and Canada for Taiwanese to immigrate to. Today, in Shanghai alone, nearly three hundred thousand residents are from Taiwan. The drive for more economic, cultural and social exchanges across the Strait is irresistible. As a result, time will no doubt be on the mainland's side. Nevertheless, it does not mean that the mainland could just stand by and wait passively. On the contrary, the mainland must have a sense of urgency and communicate through all means with the Taiwanese people. The mainland leadership should work patiently to narrow the gap and build more bridges. If both sides exercise wisdom and patience, a win-win outcome is quite possible in the future.

(The author is a Chinese diplomat based in New York.)